Fertility Transition in Sudan: An Application of Revised Mathematical Bongaarts Model
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Date
2020-02-05
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جامعة الشيخ عبدالله البدري
Abstract
This paper aims to identify intermediate determinants, and to verify their impact on fertility in Northern Sudan, in light of a new
vision and evidence.
There is a fertility decrease in Sudan. The (TFR) Total Fertility Rate has decreased by 23% during the period 1973 - 1999. We
note that nuptiality had an important role in lowering of fertility during the specified period. The (Cm) index of marriage was 0.71
during Sudan Census 1973, 0.70 during the Sudan Fertility Survey 1979, 0.68 during the Sudan Demographic and Health Survey
1990, 0.65 during Sudan Census 1993 and 0.58 during the Safe Motherhood Survey 1999. Where we found that the three models
(Original version by Bongaarts (1978), Revisions of Stover (1998) and Bongaarts (2015)) gave a very similar variation to the Cm index
and the differences between Bongaarts and Stover models equal (0.66 versus 0.66), and slight differences simple in both (Cc
) index
of non-contraception and (Ci
) index of lactational infecundability, where the difference between them in Cc
value (0.94 versus 0.96),
also Ci is worth (0.62 versus 0.61)